Your kid’s school. Your local fire station. The hospital you’d drive to in an emergency. A new report says there’s a real chance some of them will be sitting in a flood zone within 25 years — if they aren’t already.
Rebuild by Design just released “NJ Underwater: Public Infrastructure at Risk,” and the numbers are hard to ignore. The organization analyzed nearly 19,000 public infrastructure assets across every county in the state and eight major cities. What they found: roughly 1 in 4 of New Jersey’s public buildings and facilities are already in flood zones. By 2050, that number jumps 55 percent.
We’re not talking about beachfront boardwalks. We’re talking about schools, hospitals, libraries, parks, and fire stations — the stuff that keeps your town running.
The Numbers That Matter
Here’s the statewide breakdown of what will be at flood risk by 2050:
- 1,782 parks
- 524 schools
- 119 libraries
- 49 hospitals
- 24 airport facilities
On average, 50 percent of public infrastructure across eight major NJ cities — including Jersey City, Newark, Atlantic City, Camden, Elizabeth, Asbury Park, and Paterson — will sit in flood zones within the next 24 years.
And the money side is staggering. Statewide, $435.9 billion in property value and $5.9 billion in annual tax revenue are at risk. That tax revenue? It funds your schools, your water systems, your emergency services. When it goes underwater — literally — so does the funding for the things you depend on.
Jersey City: A Case Study in What’s Coming
The report digs deep into Jersey City, and it’s a wake-up call. Right now, 281 out of 686 public assets — 41 percent — are in flood zones. By 2050, that climbs to 398 assets. That’s 58 percent of the city’s public infrastructure.
What does that look like on the ground? It means 46 schools at risk, including McNair Academic High School, St. Peter’s Prep, County Prep, and Ferris High School. It means 13 fire stations. It means 45 parks, including Liberty State Park and Lincoln Park. It means Jersey City Medical Center — the city’s only hospital.
The market value of property at risk in Jersey City alone is $62.6 billion today. By 2050, that exposure hits $82.4 billion.
Atlantic City Is Already Running Out of Time
If Jersey City is a warning, Atlantic City is the alarm going off. The projections say the city could see 45 to 255 days of high-tide flooding per year by 2050. Not during storms. Just regular high tides. Nearly all of AC’s critical infrastructure — police stations, fire stations, schools, hospitals, parks, and libraries — will be in danger.
This is a city that’s been fighting to come back for years. Flooding at that level doesn’t just damage buildings. It makes it nearly impossible to keep a community going.
This Isn’t Just a Shore Problem
Here’s the thing people get wrong. When they hear “flooding” they think only areas near the shore are affected. And while coastal towns are hit hard, there are many other areas across the state that are affected. Hudson County — home to Hoboken, Jersey City, and Bayonne — already has 663 pieces of public infrastructure in flood zones. That’s 44 percent. By 2050, it’s 848 assets and 56 percent.
Newark, Camden, Paterson, Elizabeth — these are inland cities that flood too. Rivers rise. Storm drains overflow. Infrastructure built decades ago wasn’t designed for what’s coming.
By 2045, more than 62,000 New Jersey homes valued at $26.8 billion could be underwater, displacing nearly 80,000 people. And by 2050, “moderate” flooding — the kind that actually damages things — is expected to happen more than 10 times as often as it does today.
What You Can Actually Do Right Now
Rebuild by Design launched several interactive maps. You can look at your city, county and even find specific address details to see what the future expectations are for flooding. Review all the tools at https://rebuildbydesign.org/new-jersey/#tools
We love this state. That’s the whole point of what we do here. But loving a place means being honest about what’s happening to it.
This report isn’t meant to scare you out of New Jersey — nothing could do that. But it should make all of us pay attention to what’s being built, what’s being protected, and what’s being ignored. The infrastructure we take for granted every single day is increasingly at risk, and the window to do something about it is shrinking.
If your town is making decisions about flood mitigation, infrastructure spending, or development in flood-prone areas — show up. Those meetings matter more than ever.
New Jersey has come back from worse. But only because people showed up and demanded better.
